For four straight years, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers owned the NFC South. They made the playoffs every season, built a culture of winning, and became one of the more consistent teams in the conference.
Then came 2025. They started hot, looked like they were going to cruise to another division title, and then fell apart. An 8-9 finish. A missed postseason. The four-year run of NFC South dominance, over.
And now, heading into 2026, the two faces of that era are gone. Mike Evans departed in free agency. Lavonte David retired. Two franchise cornerstones, out in one offseason. What remains is talented enough to compete, motivated enough to bounce back, and operating under enough pressure that this feels like one of the more pivotal seasons in recent Buccaneers history.
At the center of it all is Baker Mayfield. This is his contract year. Everything runs through him.
Baker Mayfield's Contract Year
The Buccaneers signed Baker Mayfield to a three-year deal before the 2024 season, and that contract expires after 2026. This is the last year of it. What Mayfield does this season will determine his next deal, in Tampa or elsewhere.
The argument for Mayfield is real. When healthy, he has been one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the NFC, and the numbers he put up in his first two seasons with the Buccaneers were strong enough to make the contract look like a bargain. He quarterbacked this team to back-to-back division titles and gave Tampa Bay exactly what it needed from the position.
The argument against: 2025 was a difficult year. He played through a stack of injuries that included knee, shoulder, ankle, and upper-body issues, and he was never fully right after the hot start. The team collapsed around him and without him, and sorting out how much of that was Mayfield and how much was the circumstances is part of what this season answers.
New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who ran the Falcons' offense the past two seasons, now takes over the play-calling duties in Tampa. Mayfield pushed for Robinson's hire, and the two overlapped with the Rams in 2022, so there is at least some shared language and history. Still, this is a change in timing, terminology, and weekly game plans. How quickly Mayfield absorbs Robinson's concepts and how well their instincts align will shape everything that happens offensively in 2026.
A healthy, motivated, contract-year Baker Mayfield is a player to watch. He has the arm, the toughness, and the competitiveness to remind people why the Buccaneers committed to him. This is his chance.
Life Without Mike Evans
Mike Evans spent 12 seasons as a Buccaneer. He is the only receiver in NFL history to begin a career with 11 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, a streak that finally ended during an injury-hit 2025. When he left for San Francisco in free agency, he took with him the most reliable, consistent receiving option Mayfield, or any Tampa Bay quarterback, had ever had.
Replacing that is not a one-player job. It is a room-wide shift.
Chris Godwin steps into the WR1 role with a healthy body and renewed purpose after battling through injury concerns over recent seasons. Godwin is the veteran presence Mayfield will lean on, the trusted option in third-down situations, and the leader of a receiver room that needs one. He is capable of being a legitimate No. 1 option in this league, and 2026 is his chance to prove it in that role.
The name to watch is Emeka Egbuka, entering year two of his NFL career. Egbuka was a celebrated prospect who has shown flashes of the talent that made him one of the most coveted receivers in his draft class. Year two is when receivers typically take their first big leap, and if Egbuka develops into the kind of WR2 Tampa Bay needs, the receiver room becomes a legitimate strength rather than a question mark.
Jalen McMillan has contributed in his first two seasons and provides a third receiving option. Ted Hurst III, a third-round pick out of Georgia State, adds a big-bodied developmental piece with legitimate upside as a vertical and red-zone target.
Behind them in the backfield, Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell give Robinson two capable pass-catching running backs. That is a real asset in a West Coast-influenced offense, and it takes some pressure off the receiver room to carry everything on its own.
Vita Vea, the Trade Request, and the Defense
On the defensive side, the most significant offseason story has been the Vita Vea contract standoff.
Vea, one of the most disruptive interior defensive tackles in football, requested a trade this offseason after contract extension talks stalled. He is entering the final year of his deal at $18 million and wants new money. He reported to training camp but is not practicing, making this more of a hold-in than a clean arrival. General manager Jason Licht has made clear that the team has no intention of trading him, and the expectation inside the building is still that Vea plays for Tampa Bay in 2026.
That is the right football answer. When Vea is on the field, he changes what offenses can do in the middle. He has been the anchor of one of the better run defenses in the NFC over the past several seasons, and losing him, even in a contract dispute, would create a hole that the depth chart could not fill.
But a disgruntled defensive tackle in a contract year is a real distraction. And the defense is already adjusting to life without Lavonte David, whose retirement took away the best linebacker Tampa Bay has had in a generation. Alex Anzalone was signed from Detroit to fill some of that void, and rookie Josiah Trotter (second round) gives the organization a long-term linebacker piece to develop. But replacing David's leadership, instincts, and production is not something that happens in one offseason.
Todd Bowles remains the head coach, retained after the 2025 collapse. The defense is his domain, and getting more out of a unit that has enough talent to be better than last year is the challenge he has to answer.
The NFC South in 2026
The Buccaneers want their division back. The NFC South is not a powerhouse top to bottom, and Tampa Bay still has enough talent to compete for a title. But the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers all have their own storylines, and the Bucs cannot assume the division comes back to them without earning it.
What they have going for them: a motivated quarterback in a contract year, a healthy Chris Godwin, an emerging Egbuka, a defensive front anchored by a potentially disgruntled-but-present Vita Vea, and a head coach who has been in this division long enough to know what it takes to win it.
What works against them: the offense is still adjusting to a new coordinator, Mike Evans is not walking back in the door, and the defense has real questions at linebacker and in the secondary without David's presence stabilizing things.
Crystal Ball Prediction
Win total: 9-8. NFC South contention, Wild Card bubble.
The talent is there for Tampa Bay to get back to the playoffs. Baker Mayfield in a contract year is a real motivator, and this team has too much pride after 2025 to roll over. But the offense needs time to sync with Robinson's system, the defense is still sorting out the Vea situation, and the Evans-shaped hole in the receiver room does not fill itself overnight.
Nine wins keeps them in the NFC South conversation. Whether they get back to the postseason depends on Mayfield staying healthy, Egbuka making that Year 2 leap, and Vea deciding that a dominant contract-year performance is the best argument for his next deal.
The window is still open in Tampa. It is just a little smaller than it was four years ago.
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