Year one was a story. Year two is a test.
Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears did something remarkable in 2025: they won the NFC North, picked up a playoff victory over the Packers, and rallied from behind to win seven games in the final two minutes, the most by any NFL team since at least 1970. Ben Johnson took over as head coach and immediately turned Chicago into a legitimate contender.
The question hanging over the 2026 season is the one that always follows a breakthrough year: was that team for real, or did they get hot at the right times?
The answer depends almost entirely on Caleb Williams.
Caleb Williams: The Accuracy Problem Has to Be Fixed
There are two ways to look at Caleb Williams after his sophomore season.
The optimistic view: he set a franchise single-season passing record with 3,942 yards, threw 27 touchdowns against just seven interceptions, quarterbacked seven comeback wins, showed elite composure under pressure, and helped Chicago win a division title in just his second year in the league. That is not nothing. That is a lot.
The realistic view: Williams completed just 58.1% of his passes, ranking near the bottom of qualified starters, and the underlying accuracy metrics told a similar story. The accuracy issues were not a small sample problem. They were consistent, documented, and the kind of thing that becomes very expensive against playoff-caliber defenses.
Ben Johnson's offense is smart enough to manufacture completions, and Williams' athleticism and arm talent give him tools that most quarterbacks do not have. But the gap between a quarterback who wins seven comeback games because of heart and one who stops needing comebacks because he converts the earlier drives is the gap between a good team and a great one.
That is the work of 2026. Johnson and the Bears coaching staff have reportedly made Williams' accuracy their primary offseason focus. If it improves even meaningfully, Chicago is a legitimate NFC contender. If it does not, the comeback magic becomes harder to replicate.
The Weapons Room: Moore Is Gone, but the Core Is Intact
The biggest offseason loss for the Bears offense was the trade of DJ Moore to Buffalo. Moore was Williams' most reliable option and the wide receiver he trusted most in big moments. Replacing that comfort level takes time, and asking Williams to build chemistry with a new set of options while also fixing his accuracy is a compounded challenge.
That said, what remains is genuinely talented.
Rome Odunze enters year three as the clear No. 1 receiver, and the expectations around him are significant. He has the size, athleticism, and route-running ability to be an elite option. The question has always been whether the production will match the profile. This is the year he needs to take the step.
Luther Burden III gives Williams a dynamic slot threat. Cole Kmet and second-year tight end Colston Loveland give the offense real options at a position that Johnson has always featured. D'Andre Swift remains one of the more underrated backs in the league and is a reliable safety valve in the passing game.
Rookie Zavion Thomas, a third-round pick, adds speed, return value, and developmental depth. The group is not worse than a year ago in terms of raw talent. It is different, and different takes time.
The Offensive Line Matters Too
If Williams is going to take the next step, the Bears have to keep giving him structure.
Chicago invested in that with second-round center Logan Jones, and the veteran pieces around him give the Bears a real foundation. Joe Thuney, Garrett Bradbury, Darnell Wright, and Jedrick Wills Jr. give Johnson options up front, even if the left tackle picture still has some moving parts.
That is important because Williams' issues are not only about ball placement. They are also about rhythm, timing, and trust. If the line holds up, Johnson can keep the offense on schedule and give Williams fewer excuses to drift into chaos.
The Defense Lost a Lot
The Bears' defense took significant hits this offseason, and it shows up most visibly in the secondary.
Gone: linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, cornerback Nahshon Wright, and a wave of safeties including Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Jonathan Owens. That is a lot of experience and a lot of snaps to replace.
Chicago addressed the safety position with the first-round pick on Dillon Thieneman, who projects as a Day 1 starter. Coby Bryant fills another spot in the secondary. And Devin Bush gives the linebacker room another veteran with starting experience.
The pass rush needs to generate more consistent pressure. That was a weakness in 2025, and it remains the biggest structural question on this defense heading into a year where the NFC North will not be as forgiving as last year's version.
The NFC North Is Coming for Them
Winning a division title puts a target on your back. The Lions, Packers, and Vikings all know exactly what Chicago did and how they did it, and they have had a full offseason to adjust.
Detroit is still loaded and motivated. Green Bay is building something real around its quarterback. Minnesota has its own ambitions. The NFC North is not a division where you get to relax because you won it once.
Chicago's 2025 success was built heavily on late-game heroics. Over a full 17-game season, the math on sustained fourth-quarter comebacks gets harder. The Bears need to be a team that wins games earlier in the fourth quarter, not just at the end of it.
Crystal Ball Prediction
Win total: 10-7. NFC North contender, Wild Card.
The Bears are a real team with a real coach and a quarterback who, if the accuracy improves, could make a significant leap. But the defense lost too much, DJ Moore's absence will be felt, and the NFC North is not going to hand them a repeat title.
Ten wins, a wild card spot, and another playoff appearance feels right for a team that is still building toward its ceiling. The 2026 Bears will tell us whether 2025 was the arrival of something special or a team that got hot at the right moments. Either way, Caleb Williams' career arc runs directly through this season.
It is his prove-it year. Now he proves it.
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